Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.547693 11.216706 13.042097 15.180251 17.609288 20.276053 23.418181
2025-02-02 7.089729 9.386056 12.150721 15.693288 20.077841 25.290166 31.915267
2025-02-09 5.548152 8.144474 11.535936 16.215666 22.419499 30.267308 40.835913
2025-02-16 4.313817 6.957854 10.673751 16.144266 23.834736 34.081900 48.552232
2025-02-23 3.336910 5.883188 9.713783 15.695539 24.556201 36.911628 55.086779
2025-03-02 2.570629 4.941209 8.747373 15.028291 24.790141 38.973125 60.610575
2025-03-09 2.102862 4.373671 8.239512 14.937341 25.790308 42.122285 67.816572
2025-03-16 1.704558 3.834261 7.674082 14.646352 26.399554 44.677315 74.263532
2025-03-23 1.537125 3.688269 7.752158 15.413788 28.738753 49.999810 85.182105
2025-03-30 1.317531 3.387842 7.497245 15.554471 30.025928 53.729424 93.838478
2025-04-06 1.122462 3.093604 7.202466 15.572857 31.080691 57.125085 102.136239
2025-04-13 0.952087 2.813709 6.887604 15.503581 31.953017 60.248981 110.144030
2025-04-20 0.902702 2.819545 7.177208 16.664492 35.198878 67.667273 125.794689
2025-04-27 0.824309 2.736318 7.267071 17.443868 37.818896 74.206340 140.398025
2025-05-04 0.745310 2.632218 7.293998 18.095053 40.248507 80.564385 155.048478
2025-05-11 0.634261 2.408114 7.006591 18.044090 41.307230 84.543974 165.813502
2025-05-18 0.518739 2.134478 6.549790 17.559981 41.450449 86.855348 173.762898
2025-05-25 0.412759 1.853340 6.018006 16.828774 41.006938 88.027973 179.716176
2025-06-01 0.349792 1.694550 5.774230 16.729684 41.858243 91.667538 190.288660
2025-06-08 0.289388 1.521824 5.457561 16.409583 42.198476 94.330974 199.182496
2025-06-15 0.272470 1.512089 5.604412 17.254680 45.148597 102.239383 218.198226
2025-06-22 0.238338 1.418927 5.486852 17.409556 46.564721 107.175745 231.813442
2025-06-29 0.205579 1.318084 5.326015 17.429805 47.671965 111.545517 244.537905